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World Bank Raises Growth Expectations Of Global Economies

2011/1/13 14:14:00 217

　　 On the 13th, the World Bank released the Global Economic Outlook 2011 report, which gives growth forecasts for the global economy, emerging economies and developed economies this year and next. Compared with the same forecast half a year ago, this report is more optimistic.

The latest report shows that the global GDP growth is expected to be 3.9% in 2010, 3.3% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2012. Developing countries grew by 7% in 2010, 6% in 2011, and 6.1% in 2012. The growth rate of developing countries will continue to exceed that of high-income countries. The growth rate of the latter is predicted to be 2.8% in 2010, 2.4% in 2011, and 2.7% in 2012.

Last June, the World Bank released its 2010 Global Economic Outlook report, which predicted that global GDP would grow by 2.9% and 3.3% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, and rise to 3.2~3.5% by 2012. The annual growth of developing economies will reach 5.8% - 6.2% from 2010 to 2012. The growth of high-income countries will be 2.0% - 2.3% in 2010 and 1.9% - 2.4% in 2011.

However, the report also points out the current risks, saying that although the world economy is expected to grow steadily in 2012, "the recovery of some emerging market economies in Europe and Central Asia and some high-income countries is temporary". If the correct domestic policies are not adopted, the high household debt rate and unemployment rate as well as the weakness of the real estate and banking industries may weaken the recovery.

Lin Yifu, chief economist of the World Bank and senior vice president in charge of development economics, said: "On the positive side, the strong domestic demand growth of developing countries is leading the world economy, but the persistent financial sector problems in some high-income countries are still a threat to growth, and urgent policy actions are needed."

In 2010, the net international capital flows to the stock market and bond market of developing countries rose sharply, increasing by 42% and 30% respectively, and nine countries obtained most of the new inflows. Following a 40 per cent decline in 2009, FDI flows to developing countries rose slightly by 16 per cent in 2010, reaching US $410 billion. An important part of the rebound was due to the increase in South South investment, especially from Asia.

Hans Timo, Director of the Development Forecasting Bureau of the World Bank, pointed out that "the recovery of most developing countries has been consolidated by the rebound of international capital flows. However, large capital flows into some large middle-income economies may pose risks and threaten the medium-term recovery, especially when the currency suddenly appreciates or asset bubbles appear."