Cotton Is Broken Down And PTA Follows Closely.

As a substitute for PTA, cotton has a strong correlation with cotton prices, so the trend of cotton will have an important impact on PTA. PTA

The near future American cotton Has been down for more than two months, from the cotton supply side, the main cotton producing countries in the southern hemisphere in recent years, Australia, Brazil and Argentina cotton is about to enter the market, in the short term, the global cotton supply will increase, and cotton prices will be suppressed.

In terms of cotton demand, cotton yarn and other products in cotton textile enterprises are backlog, and many enterprises have already stored yarn stock for more than a month to two months. The sluggish sales of yarn will have a negative impact on the purchase amount of upstream lint, resulting in low operating rate of cotton upstream and downstream enterprises.

At present, although domestic cotton prices are still seriously upside down, cotton import taxes may be down and countries. Cotton price control Rise and other negative factors, it is expected that cotton will continue to maintain a weak pattern of greater probability, and cotton prices will inevitably drag down the downward trend of PTA prices.

Recently, raw materials PX continued to operate at a high level near $1600 / ton, especially after the Japanese earthquake. Due to the shutdown of several PX production facilities, the supply of PX in the Asian region showed a tight supply situation, thus promoting the continuous rise of PX prices, resulting in a squeeze in the production profits of PTA. With the increase of domestic PX production and the planned maintenance of PTA devices, PX needs to be reduced. PX Supply and demand more relaxed, dragging its prices down from high, leading to the downward trend of Zhengzhou PTA center of gravity. Up till now, the market price of para xylene in Asia has continued to decline, and 5 months later, the delivery rate was 1605 US dollars / ton CFR, but no solid market was heard. In addition, Sinopec Shanghai branch and Beijing branch in April 2011 PX settlement price of 12900 yuan / ton, compared with the March settlement price fell 600 yuan / ton. It shows that PX is slightly more pessimistic than before, thus suppressing PTA uplink.

The market for polyester chips has remained weak recently, and downstream demand is sluggish. The whole market atmosphere is deserted, and the polyester factories basically take the quantity. The cost of labor, energy conservation and emission reduction, and other factors, coupled with the continuous increase in the deposit reserve ratio of the central bank, has led to the tension in the capital chain of the textile enterprises and the increase in the pressure to repay loans. This has made the downstream enterprises insist on on-demand procurement of raw materials PTA, and short fiber enterprises have not shipped much, and the load of short fiber manufacturers has been reduced from 7.8 last week to 7.2. Before the price of raw materials PTA rose, but the price transmission has lagged behind, the price of terminal products is difficult to rise synchronously, and the profits of enterprises have been declining. There are rumors that the export tax rebate rate of some industries will soon be readjust, the cost increases sharply and the RMB exchange rate has reached a new high.

Overall, the fundamentals of PTA continue to remain weak in the short term. The restricted electricity measures in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have affected the terminal operating rate, and the textile industry has slowed down the demand for PTA.

In addition, the domestic inflationary pressure and national macroeconomic regulation and control continue, the recent PTA market also did not have good news, coupled with the downward displacement of cotton, Zhengzhou PTA decline is difficult to change, from the disk view, the weekly K line has been closed for three consecutive weeks, the average daily line also showed a downward distribution of the empty arrangement, PTA main 1109 contract continued to explore bottom trend or continuation, short-term target 9500 yuan / ton.