Domestic Clothing Sales Are Not Optimistic In The Coming Half Year.

Despite terminal consumption

Generally speaking, the volume of real estate turnover is decreasing first, followed by the fall in house prices, and then the decrease in operating rate.

Judging from the current economic environment, the expectations for the next half year are not very optimistic. The overall liquidity is tight, and the slowdown in economic growth has also become a consistent expectation of the market.

In October this year, the sales volume of clothing sales of the above retail sales enterprises was 30.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of the retail industry was 12.6 percentage points lower than that of September, up 7.2 percentage points from October last year.

The growth rate of clothing sales in key commercial retail enterprises reached 14.7% in October, 8.6 percentage points lower than in September, down 11.8 percentage points from October last year.

This may be the beginning of the growth of textile and apparel terminal consumption, which is affected by the economic environment.

From the historical experience, the impact of the slowdown in economic growth on terminal consumption is direct.

In 2009, influenced by the financial crisis, China's economic growth slowed sharply. From the income of listed companies, the fluctuation is far greater than the economic fluctuation of the same period.

It is estimated that in the first half of next year, the growth of China's textile and apparel terminal consumption will decline to a certain extent, while the terminal sales of listed companies also have lower risks than expected.

In the 2009 financial crisis, the growth rate of the performance of the brand clothing listed companies declined generally on the 2009 statements, and the author found that the three home textile listed companies had already reflected the negative effects in the 2008 statements.

The inherent logic of this time difference may be related to the close correlation between the home textile industry and the real estate market.

From the perspective of the decline of China's economic growth, the volume of real estate is generally down, followed by the fall in house prices, and then the decline in operating rate, thereby affecting investment. Finally, the overall economic downturn has led to a decline in consumer enthusiasm.

When the real estate turnover decreases, the sales volume of home textiles will be directly affected.

The negative impact of the future home textile industry may precede that of clothing companies.

Judging from this year's data, the average stock turnover rate of A share listed companies has generally declined, which means that they generally have more optimistic expectations for terminal sales, and can meet the future rapid expansion by increasing the proportion of stocking.

In this case, if the terminal sales are lower than expected, higher inventory will increase the volatility of listed companies' performance.

Because of the tighter monetary policy this year, brand dealers, as weaker private enterprises or private owners, have become more and more difficult to get financial support from banks this year. The overall channel managers' funds are in a tight state. This is also confirmed in the investigation of some brand dealers.

Most of the listed Brand Company have a more optimistic estimate of the future industry and their own brand prospects. Therefore, listed brands generally increase their funds and credit support to distributors.

The main forms of support include the reduction of the advance payment ratio of the order, allowing the dealer to postpone the payment of a certain percentage of the goods when the goods are shipped, and the shop decoration fee.

The author believes that although the terminal consumer market is more prosperous, increasing the financial support for dealers can fully mobilize the enthusiasm of dealers and enhance the efficiency of channel expansion. But if the terminal consumer market turns cold, the accounts receivable for dealers will bring great risks to the brand dealers.

Next year's main risk lies in the decline in terminal consumption caused by the economic downturn, as well as the higher operational risks of enterprises and dealers.