In 2012, Xinjiang Raised The Area And Output Of Cotton Twice, And Experts Called For The Improvement Of Industrial Policies.

Recently, the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

The Xinjiang cotton Summit Forum was jointly hosted by the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau in 2012. The domestic cotton chiefs gathered in Urumqi to discuss this year's cotton market, cotton production and cotton purchase and sale.

Oversupply of cotton

According to the monthly report on global cotton supply and demand released by the US Department of agriculture, it is estimated that in the year 2012/2013, the world's cotton output will reach 24 million 840 thousand tons, a decrease of 7.01% over the previous year, a consumption of 23 million 549 thousand tons, an increase of 1.47% over the previous year, and a cotton terminal inventory of 16 million 258 thousand tons, an increase of 10.13% over the previous year.

According to Wei Gao Cheng, President of Xinjiang Cotton Association, it is estimated that China's cotton production will be reduced by 7.46% tons and 6 million 750 thousand tons in the year 2012/2013, which will reduce consumption by 8 million 491 thousand tons, down 4.88% from the same period last year, and import 2 million 830 thousand tons, down 44.07% from the same period last year, and 7 million 442 thousand tons at the end of the year, an increase of 16.74% over the same period last year.

Considering the three factors of domestic output, consumption and import, China's cotton supply will exceed 1 million 89 thousand tons in 2012/2013.

Up to 2011, Xinjiang, director of the supply and marketing cooperatives of Xinjiang autonomous region, said that Xinjiang had achieved the first cotton planting area, output per unit area, total output and output in 19 consecutive years. In 2012, the cotton planting area reached 24 million 700 thousand mu in 2012 and 660 thousand mu over the previous year. The total output is expected to reach 3 million 200 thousand tons, an increase of 120 thousand tons over the previous year, accounting for about 49% of the total cotton output in China.

According to Zhang Wenmin, general manager of the Cotton Industry Department of Wanda futures, it is predicted that the total amount of 600-700 tons of national reserve cotton will be the largest quantity limit in the new year. It is estimated that after December 2012, the output of 300-400 tons of 660-690 tons of new cotton will not be stored and sold, and it can only be sold passively. The national storage price will be the highest price in the first half of the next year, which is higher than the price of cotton imported from domestic and international spot futures.

In the next few years, the market is difficult to digest the excessive cotton stocks, so the situation of oversupply in cotton market will directly affect the market sales of cotton in Xinjiang.

Insiders said that at present, the state has collected 20400 yuan, and now it is

The price is the highest, which is higher than the current price and futures price. The first choice is to pay for the stock. However, because of other reasons, the risk of that part of the cotton that can not be handed in to the reserve is still very large. It is also possible to eat up the portion of the profits and pay back the loss. If we make hedging in the futures market in advance, we may avoid the risk.

Industrial policy needs improvement

This year, affected by the constant demand of domestic and international cotton market, the cotton market price trend is low, and the new cotton year will be difficult to sell cotton. Facing the current cotton market situation, the relevant people in charge of the development and Reform Commission of Xinjiang autonomous region said, "we call on the state to give Xinjiang cotton more policy support, establish a long-term mechanism for cotton production, improve the subsidy standard for fine varieties, launch the comprehensive cotton planting policy, appropriately extend the cotton storage time in the new year, and incorporate the long staple cotton into the national storage and storage area, give the treatment of Xinjiang cotton's green channel and enjoy the freight subsidy, so that the development of Xinjiang's cotton industry can be more consolidated."

Wei Gaocheng said that during the period of storage, the cotton enterprises that could enter and store will be purchased according to the state's reserve price.

However, the acquisition of cotton enterprises which can not be stored will have many misgivings. Considering the huge market price risks and late sales difficulties, new losses may arise, and may be restricted or rejected. This will lead to the interests of local cotton growers.

If this year can not be included in the storage of long staple cotton, this year's situation from all over the place, many places worry about how to do cotton outside the grade 4 cotton. This year, long staple cotton is still in the scope of storage. If this year's long staple cotton can not be stored in a timely manner, and then encounter sales difficulties, I'm afraid it will affect the planting of long staple cotton in Xinjiang, Wei Gao Cheng said.

In view of the current problems in cotton purchase, Wei Gaocheng expressed the hope that the state would perfect the cotton purchase credit mechanism, extend the storage time of cotton to June and relax the storage standards to 5 and 6 grades of fine cotton, and add long staple cotton into the storage area; establish a green channel for the cotton purchase loans supported by the Agricultural Development Bank, give priority to arranging storage and pportation, and establish a storage declaration system.

Du Min, director of the rural economic policy research center of the Ministry of agriculture, suggested that a long-term mechanism for the development of cotton industry should be set up as soon as possible, and a national macroeconomic regulation and control policy startup mechanism and plan should be established.

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