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The Growth Rate Of Import And Export In July Is Both Negative And Positive. It Is Not Clear That The External Environment Alarm Has Been Lifted.

2013/8/14 11:23:00 20

Import And Export Data Foreign Trade Garment Export In July

The growth rate of import and export in both P and July increased from negative to positive.

Industry analysts pointed out that this is related to the US and European markets.

At the same time, some financial support policies of our government to promote foreign trade development have also played a role.

But it is worth noting that a slight change is only reflected in some commodity categories, but it can not be explained that the foreign trade has come to an inflection point, and the external environmental warning has not yet been lifted.

The growth rate of import and export in both P and July has both changed from negative to positive. Most commentators consider this to be a sign of stabilization and recovery.

At the same time, there are also a few voices questioned, this time "counterattack" behind the water.

experts believe that the stabilization of foreign trade is authentic, because the increase is not obvious, and the Customs has strengthened supervision. Without evidence, "water" is a speculation.

experts also pointed out that the change of data in July was related to the increase in the import and export of individual commodities, and it was not clear that the external environmental warning had been lifted.

internal cause should be emphasized .

from negative growth to rapid stabilization, one argument is: promoting foreign trade "six countries" has played a role.

Regarding this, Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the executive session of the State Council was held at the end of July. Moreover, the guiding principles for trade facilitation have not yet been promulgated, and it can not directly affect the data in July.

Bai Ming said, "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "> foreign trade < /a > reversal is the result of a combination of various factors, but the recovery of the international economy, especially the optimistic signal from the US economy, is the key point.

"Sub indicators show that the US economy is improving, and as the leading country in the international monetary system, its driving role in the world economy is obvious."

data show that in July, US manufacturing economic activities expanded for 2 consecutive months, the purchasing managers index (PMI) was 55.4, the overall economy grew for 50 consecutive months, and the unemployment rate further dropped to 7.4%.

Bai Ming pointed out that China should pay more attention to its endogenous driving force.

"The initial work of the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade has begun to play a role. Under the keynote of" steady growth "in China, the new deal introduced recently at the national level has also boosted market confidence.

the guiding ideology on financial support for economic structural adjustment and pformation and upgrading, known as the new version of "ten countries", is one of the core areas in the field of money and credit, that is, "optimizing the allocation of financial resources, making good use of increments and revitalizing the stock".

the CBRC's interpretation of increments is committed to eight key areas such as pillar industries.

"This part of the investment will stimulate economic growth, which will naturally bring about spillover of import demand."

Bai Ming said.

in addition, the RMB appreciation is expected to cool down since July, and even the first depreciation in the year. The low foreign trade base in the same period last year is also the reason for the improvement of foreign trade data in July.

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can not be lightly picked up .

"the data in July will be stable for foreign trade, let alone rebound."

He Weiwen, CO director of the China US international research center of the China International Trade Association, said, "if the 5~7 months are continuous, the increase is 1%, -3.1% and 5.1%, with an average of 1%. The situation is not very satisfactory."

He Weiwen analysis shows that the growth situation of integrated circuit and mobile phone export is slowing down in July.

1~7 month export growth was 161.1% and 19.2% respectively, while the growth rate of 1~6 was 191.6% and 20.1% respectively.

In July, mobile phone exports amounted to $8 billion 667 million, which was 9.7% lower than 1~6's monthly average of $9 billion 602 million.

"It is expected that exports of computers and electronics will go bad in the second half of the year".

The export growth rate of these two commodities in 1~7 months was 11.6% and 19.5%, respectively, which were lower than those in the 1~6 months of 12.2% and 21.2% respectively.

he thinks that another important factor for the growth of July a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > export > /a > is the EU's economic recovery. The total amount of exports to the EU over that month exceeded 30 billion US dollars, an increase of about 15% compared with that of 1~6, but it is still necessary to wait and see whether it can continue.

In view of the limited economic recovery of the EU, exports to Europe in the second half of this year will be greatly improved. "

for imported data showing two digit growth, He Weiwen said: "an important reason is the increase in iron ore and crude oil delivery.

Import volume in July was 14.3% and 13.5% higher than that in 1~6 months.

Excluding this factor, the growth is not obvious.

"one month's data are not enough to look at the whole picture. The higher growth at a time does not indicate that the external environment alarm has been lifted."

He Weiwen said.

false and real can not be guessed /strong < .

another focus on the July foreign trade data is whether there is any false trade.

In response, He Weiwen said, "exports in July are hard to say how many false factors, which need to be investigated, and can not be guesswork."

he believes that the "six countries" will help foreign trade in the second half of the year.

It is estimated that in the second half of this year, the export growth will be 5~7%, roughly 8% in the whole year.

However, 1~4 month's false export factor should account for about 1.5 percentage points.

Imports grew by a single digit.

Bai Ming thinks that the possibility of counterfeiting is very small if the a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp" > customs < /a > strengthens the supervision.

Although there are still some fluctuations in the latter export, the possibility of "low innovation is not big."